The hottest Petrochemical quotation rises firmly,

2022-08-12
  • Detail

Petrochemical prices rose firmly, and the driving force of Liansu's rise is still bullish

since the end of September, the main driving force of Liansu's rise has been abundant liquidity, and the current short-term market adjustment has gradually transformed Liansu's rising force from "liquidity flooding caused by the depreciation of the US dollar" to "demand led spot strength". Since this year, the price of agricultural products has risen sharply, which has led to the trend of expanding and advancing the peak season of traditional agricultural film consumption, and demand has become the main support for the trend of continuous plastic production in the later stage. The centralized maintenance of equipment in November led to the outbreak of "supply reduction and demand increase" in LLDPE. Petrochemical enterprises raised prices actively, and speculation in the spot market was gradually stimulated. Supported by this, Liansu is expected to maintain a strong pattern. It is expected that the price range of the main 1101 contract will reach 12500 yuan/ton. At the same time, because the 1101 contract is limited by the current price difference in the process of rising, there has been an obvious shift in the 1105 contract, which is expected to be completed within a week

the theme of "dollar depreciation" supporting the market in the early stage has been weakened recently.

the dollar index can exert a dual impact on Liansu through finance and industrial chain. The exchange rate uncertainty caused by the trend of the dollar has a great impact on Liansu's price

the Federal Reserve put forward the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy, which promoted the overall rise in commodity prices. The "employment consumption" economic structure of the United States determines that the stimulus policy will continue until its employment situation does not improve. Recently, there have been two major events in the United States, the mid-term election and the Federal Reserve meeting. Market sentiment is more sensitive. Market participants are mainly concerned about the scale of quantitative easing policy. Judging from the current market reaction after the announcement of the Federal Reserve's bond purchase plan, it brings only broad fluctuations in a short period of time. Before the U.S. nonfarm employment and trade data turn around, the dollar will remain low, but the depreciation rate slows down. In terms of Liansu, the market better provides various e-commerce support for upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain, which means that the copper alloy functional new materials produced by Guoliang copper have been certified by the national authority and turn to the fundamentals for support

the rise in the price of agricultural products leads to the expansion and advance of the traditional peak season of demand

according to the price operation law of LLDPE in the current two cities, there is a round of rise in the fourth quarter of each year, and there is an obvious seasonal law, which is mainly caused by the production of agricultural film and the corresponding raw material stocking demand. However, this year's situation is different, in order to prevent the broken fragments of the sample from flying out and injuring the experimenters, there is a trend of expansion and advance

in September, the monthly output of agricultural film reached 143900 tons, with a significant increase of 20.48% month on month and 51.43% year-on-year, close to the annual high of 156000 tons in March. In fact, from the output in August, we can find that it is different from previous years. In previous years, the output in August is in the off-season. After loading to a certain load, it can't go up and down again. However, the output of agricultural film has rebounded in August this year, with a month on month increase of 5.66% and a year-on-year increase of 37.2%. With the confirmation of the output data in September, we find that the peak season of agricultural film production this year is ahead of schedule as a whole

this has a lot to do with the general rise in the price of agricultural products this year: the general rise in the price of agricultural products has not only stimulated farmers' enthusiasm for planting, increased the demand for agricultural film, but also increased farmers' income, making them have the funds to stock agricultural film in advance. Affected by this, the demand for agricultural film in the downstream this year has shown a trend of expansion and advance, which has also led to the expansion and advance of the traditional consumption peak season of LLDPE

at present, the agricultural film orders in North China are receiving well. The downstream agricultural film factories in Shandong, Hebei and other provinces reflect that the production plan has been arranged to the end of November, while the demand for greenhouse film will not turn weak until mid December. At the same time, the cotton price has risen by 80% this year, and the income of cotton farmers has been significantly increased for the first time, which indicates that the reduction of cotton planting area caused by the low price of cotton since 2008 is expected to be improved, and cotton planting may recover in a large area. Under the influence of this factor, combined with the current rising spot price of LLDPE, some agricultural film plants have intended to reserve film raw materials in spring next year in advance, which may lead to further demand and increase the demand for LLDPE in the fourth quarter

in the later stage, in addition to the uncertainty of downstream demand restrictions that may occur in the "energy conservation and emission reduction" power rationing, there is no suspense about the expansion of demand scale in the peak season of LLDPE this year

the recent reduction in domestic supply and the rise in petrochemical quotation are firm.

the unit overhaul in the middle and late November has affected the domestic LLDPE production capacity by 420000 tons, accounting for 10%, and they are concentrated in South China, which may cause the current relatively high LLDPE price in South China to further rise, and then affect the spot price in other regions. In view of the tight supply of domestic and global LLDPE capacity at present, the maintenance will further raise the market price. The recent unexpected shutdown of LLDPE units of Guangzhou Petrochemical and Lanzhou Petrochemical has also affected 10% - 15% of domestic production capacity in the short term, causing supply contraction in southern China and other regions to a certain extent, leading to price hikes

since October, the centralized maintenance of PE devices in the surrounding areas of Asia has pushed up the quotation of the outer disk, which has worked together with the stable quotation of domestic petrochemical companies, and has restrained the growth space of import profits. In addition, traders have basically completed the import preparation from July to September, and the LLDPE import volume in the fourth quarter will not continue to grow, but will gradually decline

at present, the overall inventory of petrochemical enterprises is at a medium low level since the beginning of the year. In view of the reduction of supply in November, petrochemical enterprises are very determined to raise prices at present. Unlike the rise driven by the financial side at the end of September, this round of petrochemical price rise triggered by supply and demand is ahead of the overall futures trend, and is more determined. At present, PetroChina has set a price of up to 11700 yuan/ton in East China and Northeast China. The spot price supported by demand will provide more favorable support for Liansu

based on the above situation, the author believes that LLDPE will maintain an oscillatory upward trend in the later stage. Affected by the "supply reduction and demand increase", it is expected that the main 1101 contract price is expected to reach 12500 yuan/ton. At present, the main force of the market has shown signs of shifting positions, and the price difference between 1101 and 1105 contracts has shown an expanding trend. Investors are advised to pay attention to the entry time of 1105 contracts and the corresponding arbitrage opportunities

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI